#13 SARATOGA // Vessel Intelligence System

Intelligence Overview

SARATOGA · MMSI 368023510 · 🇺🇸 CA · Primary Port: Victoria

PERIOD: JAN–DEC 2024

⚠ INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: SARATOGA ranks #13 of 69,461 monitored vessels with 376 anomalous detections across 11 months. Composite risk score: 0.9500 (CRITICAL). Active alert types: ZIGZAG, SPEED_ANOMALY.

Global Rank

#13

of 69,461 vessels

Composite Score

0.9500

CRITICAL

Total Detections

376

Months Active

11/12

Unique Ports

2

Speed Anomalies

50

Max Speed

102.2 kn

Monthly Detection Volume

10
36

11
15

12
2

2
2

3
10

4
33

2024 MONTHLY DETECTIONS

Alert Type Distribution

SPEED_ANOMALY

50

ZIGZAG

48

Key Intelligence Findings

Velocity Fraud — 50 Speed Anomaly Events

AIS SOG field manipulated to broadcast physically impossible speeds up to 102.2 knots. Systematic falsification of movement data to corrupt automated tracking algorithms.

Evasion Navigation — 48 Zigzag Events

Erratic course-over-ground patterns up to 170.4° std deviation, far exceeding the 50° anomaly threshold. Pattern consistent with surveillance evasion maneuvers or anchor position AIS noise.

Port Detection Summary

🇨🇦

Victoria

73

avg 0.748

🇺🇸

Seattle

25

avg 0.739

Monthly Alert Log — All Months

Month	Detections	Severity	Score	Nearest Port	Alert Types
February 2024	2	CRITICAL	0.9000	Seattle	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
March 2024	10	CRITICAL	0.9000	Victoria	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
April 2024	33	CRITICAL	0.9000	Seattle	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
May 2024	50	CRITICAL	0.9000	Victoria	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
June 2024	58	CRITICAL	0.9000	Victoria	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
July 2024	62	CRITICAL	0.9500	Victoria	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
August 2024	60	CRITICAL	0.9000	Victoria	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
September 2024	48	CRITICAL	0.9500	Victoria	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
October 2024	36	CRITICAL	0.9500	Victoria	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
November 2024	15	CRITICAL	0.9000	Victoria	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
December 2024	2	CRITICAL	0.9500	Victoria	ZIGZAG; SPEED_ANOMALY

Activity Map

Detection events plotted · Color-coded by alert type · Drag to pan · Scroll to zoom

● Speed Anomaly ● Position Jump ● Zigzag ● Dark Vessel ● Rendezvous

Threat Intelligence

Analytical confidence: HIGH · Multi-indicator assessment

Threat Indicators Matrix

Indicator	Status	Evidence	Confidence
AIS Blackout / Dark Vessel	NOT DETECTED	—	LOW
GPS Spoofing / Position Jump	NOT DETECTED	—	LOW
Velocity Fraud / Speed Anomaly	CONFIRMED	50 events · max 102.2 kn	CRITICAL
Evasion Navigation / Zigzag	CONFIRMED	48 events · max COG std 170.4°	HIGH
Ship-to-Ship Rendezvous	NOT DETECTED	—	LOW
Multi-Port Operations	POSSIBLE	2 unique ports	MEDIUM

Operational Profile

Primary AO

Victoria and surrounding maritime zone

Active Period

11 months of continuous alert activity in 2024

Alert Density

376 detections across 98 individual events (avg 34.2/month)

Active Techniques

⟳ ZIGZAG ⚡ SPEED

Threat Category

AIS Anomaly — Single or dual technique pattern

TTP Analysis

Tactics, Techniques & Procedures — Maritime ATT&CK Framework

MAR-T001

RTE-ANO-001

Velocity Fraud

AIS SOG field manipulation to broadcast impossible speeds up to 102.2 kn. Corrupts automated tracking algorithms and creates false movement vectors. Count: 50 events.

HIGH CONFIDENCE
50 events

MAR-T003

RTE-ANO-005

Evasion Navigation

Erratic COG changes exceeding 50° threshold (max 170.4°). Consistent with surveillance evasion or at-anchor AIS manipulation. Count: 48 events.

HIGH CONFIDENCE
48 events

Risk Analysis

Composite risk scoring · Weighted indicator model · Quantus v2.4

Composite Score

0.9500

CRITICAL

Avg Detection Score

0.9182

Global Rank

#13

of 69,461 vessels

Weighted Indicator Scoring

Formula: (Dark×3) + (Rendezvous×4) + (PosJump×2) + (Speed×1) + (Zigzag×0.5) + (MaxScore×50)

Indicator	Count	Weight	Contribution
DARK_VESSEL	0	×3	0.0
RENDEZVOUS	0	×4	0.0
POSITION_JUMP	0	×2	0.0
SPEED_ANOMALY	50	×1	50.0
ZIGZAG	48	×0.5	24.0
MaxSingleScore	0.9500	×50	47.5
COMPOSITE TOTAL	Normalized [0,1]		0.9500 CRITICAL

⚡ Speed Anomaly Detections

Indicator: RTE-ANO-001 · 50 events · Max: 102.2 kn

AIS SOG FRAUD

Speed anomaly events are triggered when AIS Speed Over Ground (SOG) exceeds the 30-knot detection threshold. SARATOGA reports speeds up to 102.2 kn — consistent with deliberate AIS SOG field manipulation to corrupt tracking algorithms.

Total Events

50

Max Reported SOG

102.2 kn

Indicator ID

RTE-ANO-001

Speed Anomaly Events (Top 50 by score)

Date	Max SOG (kn)	Score	Severity	Port	Coordinates

⟳ Zigzag / Erratic Navigation

Indicator: RTE-ANO-005 · 48 events · Max COG std: 170.4°

EVASION PATTERN

Zigzag events are triggered when course-over-ground (COG) standard deviation exceeds 50°. SARATOGA records COG deviations up to 170.4° — consistent with surveillance evasion maneuvers or at-anchor AIS noise manipulation.

Total Events

48

Max COG Std Dev

170.4°

Threshold

50°

Zigzag Events (Top 50 by COG deviation)

Date	COG Std Dev (°)	Score	Severity	Port	Coordinates

Port History

2 distinct port areas · CA primary flag state

Complete Port Detection Summary

Port	Country	Detections	Avg Score	Avg Dist NM	Risk
Victoria	🇨🇦	73	0.7479	21.1	STANDARD
Seattle	🇺🇸	25	0.7386	22.5	STANDARD

🇨🇦 Victoria — Port Profile

73 detections · Avg score 0.7479 · Avg distance 21.1 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

73

Primary port of operation

Avg Alert Score

0.7479

Avg Distance NM

21.1

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Victoria

SPEED_ANOMALY

37

ZIGZAG

36

Coordinates: 48.424°N, 123.370°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇨🇦 CA

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

73 of 98 total detections (74.5%)

Avg Distance from Port

21.1 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

🇺🇸 Seattle — Port Profile

25 detections · Avg score 0.7386 · Avg distance 22.5 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

25

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.7386

Avg Distance NM

22.5

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Seattle

SPEED_ANOMALY

13

ZIGZAG

12

Coordinates: 47.601°N, 122.334°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

25 of 98 total detections (25.5%)

Avg Distance from Port

22.5 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

Ownership Intelligence

MMSI registry · Flag state analysis · Beneficial ownership investigation

Vessel Name

SARATOGA

MMSI

368023510

Flag State (MMSI-derived)

🇺🇸 CA

MID Code

368 → 🇺🇸 CA

Primary Port

Victoria

Detection Period

11 months (2024)

Registered Owner

Pending registry lookup

Beneficial Owner

Requires FinCEN CDD query

OFAC SDN Status

Pending cross-reference

Recommended Action

Physical inspection + full registry query

Vessel Type Analysis

AIS declared type · Physical capability vs. observed behavior

Type Mismatch Assessment

AIS Declared Type

vessel_type=37 (Pleasure Craft)

Behavior Consistency

INCONSISTENT — year-round multi-port operations with 376 anomalous events are not consistent with pleasure craft use

Speed Capability

Reported 102.2 kn — physically impossible for Type 37 (max ~45 kn high-performance)

Inspection Priority

HIGH — Recommend USCG/CBSA physical boarding and documentation review

Applicable Statutes

47 C.F.R. § 80.953 (AIS falsification) · 33 C.F.R. § 164.46 (AIS carriage) · 21 U.S.C. § 955 (maritime drug law)