#108 WINE DOWN // Vessel Intelligence System

Intelligence Overview

WINE DOWN · MMSI 338169664 · 🇺🇸 CA · Primary Port: Victoria

PERIOD: JAN–DEC 2024

⚠ INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: WINE DOWN ranks #108 of 69,461 monitored vessels with 166 anomalous detections across 8 months. Composite risk score: 0.9500 (CRITICAL). Active alert types: POSITION_JUMP, ZIGZAG, SPEED_ANOMALY.

Global Rank

#108

of 69,461 vessels

Composite Score

0.9500

CRITICAL

Total Detections

166

Months Active

8/12

Unique Ports

10

Position Jumps

23

GPS spoofing

Speed Anomalies

28

Max Speed

102.2 kn

Max Jump

3,709km

Monthly Detection Volume

10
22

11
13

12
25

2024 MONTHLY DETECTIONS

Alert Type Distribution

SPEED_ANOMALY

28

POSITION_JUMP

23

ZIGZAG

9

Key Intelligence Findings

GPS Spoofing — 23 Position Jumps

AIS coordinates fabricated at impossible locations. Maximum jump of 3,709 km confirms the AIS transmitter is broadcasting false positions. Systematic identity concealment is in progress.

Velocity Fraud — 28 Speed Anomaly Events

AIS SOG field manipulated to broadcast physically impossible speeds up to 102.2 knots. Systematic falsification of movement data to corrupt automated tracking algorithms.

Evasion Navigation — 9 Zigzag Events

Erratic course-over-ground patterns up to 114.7° std deviation, far exceeding the 50° anomaly threshold. Pattern consistent with surveillance evasion maneuvers.

Port Detection Summary

🇨🇦

Victoria

22

avg 0.809

🇨🇦

Vancouver

17

avg 0.745

🇺🇸

San Diego

6

avg 0.721

🇺🇸

Seattle

4

avg 0.741

🇺🇸

Portland OR

3

avg 0.731

🇺🇸

Duluth

2

avg 0.925

🇺🇸

Long Beach

2

avg 0.726

🇺🇸

Anchorage

2

avg 0.807

Monthly Alert Log — All Months

Month	Detections	Severity	Score	Nearest Port	Alert Types
May 2024	17	CRITICAL	0.9263	Seattle	SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG; POSITION_JUMP
June 2024	5	HIGH	0.8558	Victoria	ZIGZAG; POSITION_JUMP; SPEED_ANOMALY
July 2024	19	CRITICAL	0.9263	Victoria	POSITION_JUMP; SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
August 2024	17	CRITICAL	0.9347	Tacoma	POSITION_JUMP; SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
September 2024	48	CRITICAL	0.9500	Victoria	POSITION_JUMP; SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
October 2024	22	HIGH	0.8519	Portland OR	POSITION_JUMP; SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
November 2024	13	CRITICAL	0.9500	Duluth	POSITION_JUMP; SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG
December 2024	25	CRITICAL	0.9500	Victoria	ZIGZAG; SPEED_ANOMALY; POSITION_JUMP

Activity Map

Detection events plotted · Color-coded by alert type · Drag to pan · Scroll to zoom

● Speed Anomaly ● Position Jump ● Zigzag ● Dark Vessel ● Rendezvous

Threat Intelligence

Analytical confidence: HIGH · Multi-indicator assessment

Threat Indicators Matrix

Indicator	Status	Evidence	Confidence
AIS Blackout / Dark Vessel	NOT DETECTED	—	LOW
GPS Spoofing / Position Jump	CONFIRMED	23 jumps · max 3709.1km	CRITICAL
Velocity Fraud / Speed Anomaly	CONFIRMED	28 events · max 102.2 kn	CRITICAL
Evasion Navigation / Zigzag	CONFIRMED	9 events · max COG std 114.7°	HIGH
Ship-to-Ship Rendezvous	NOT DETECTED	—	LOW
Multi-Port Operations	CONFIRMED	10 unique ports	HIGH

Operational Profile

Primary AO

Victoria and surrounding maritime zone

Active Period

8 months of continuous alert activity in 2024

Alert Density

166 detections across 60 individual events (avg 20.8/month)

Active Techniques

⊕ POS JUMP ⟳ ZIGZAG ⚡ SPEED

Threat Category

High-Confidence AIS Manipulation — Multiple confirmed evasion techniques

TTP Analysis

Tactics, Techniques & Procedures — Maritime ATT&CK Framework

MAR-T001

RTE-ANO-001

Velocity Fraud

AIS SOG field manipulation to broadcast impossible speeds up to 102.2 kn. Corrupts automated tracking algorithms and creates false movement vectors. Count: 28 events.

HIGH CONFIDENCE
28 events

MAR-T002

AIS-MAN-003

GPS Spoofing

GPS coordinate spoofing — AIS positions fabricated at impossible locations. Max jump: 3709.1km. Implies deliberate identity concealment. Count: 23 events.

HIGH CONFIDENCE
23 events

MAR-T003

RTE-ANO-005

Evasion Navigation

Erratic COG changes exceeding 50° threshold (max 114.7°). Consistent with surveillance evasion or at-anchor AIS manipulation. Count: 9 events.

HIGH CONFIDENCE
9 events

Risk Analysis

Composite risk scoring · Weighted indicator model · Quantus v2.4

Composite Score

0.9500

CRITICAL

Avg Detection Score

0.9181

Global Rank

#108

of 69,461 vessels

Weighted Indicator Scoring

Formula: (Dark×3) + (Rendezvous×4) + (PosJump×2) + (Speed×1) + (Zigzag×0.5) + (MaxScore×50)

Indicator	Count	Weight	Contribution
DARK_VESSEL	0	×3	0.0
RENDEZVOUS	0	×4	0.0
POSITION_JUMP	23	×2	46.0
SPEED_ANOMALY	28	×1	28.0
ZIGZAG	9	×0.5	4.5
MaxSingleScore	0.9500	×50	47.5
COMPOSITE TOTAL	Normalized [0,1]		0.9500 CRITICAL

⚡ Speed Anomaly Detections

Indicator: RTE-ANO-001 · 28 events · Max: 102.2 kn

AIS SOG FRAUD

Speed anomaly events are triggered when AIS Speed Over Ground (SOG) exceeds the 30-knot detection threshold. WINE DOWN reports speeds up to 102.2 kn — consistent with deliberate AIS SOG field manipulation to corrupt tracking algorithms.

Total Events

28

Max Reported SOG

102.2 kn

Indicator ID

RTE-ANO-001

Speed Anomaly Events (Top 50 by score)

Date	Max SOG (kn)	Score	Severity	Port	Coordinates

⊕ Position Jump Detections

Indicator: AIS-MAN-003 · 23 events · Max jump: 3,709 km

GPS SPOOFING

Position jumps confirm GPS coordinate spoofing — AIS positions fabricated at impossible locations. WINE DOWN has 23 confirmed position jumps with maximum displacement of 3,709 km.

Total Events

23

Max Jump Distance

3,709 km

Indicator ID

AIS-MAN-003

Position Jump Events (Top 50 by distance)

Date	Jump (km)	Implied Speed (kn)	Score	Severity	Spoofed-To Port	Coordinates

⟳ Zigzag / Erratic Navigation

Indicator: RTE-ANO-005 · 9 events · Max COG std: 114.7°

EVASION PATTERN

Zigzag events are triggered when course-over-ground (COG) standard deviation exceeds 50°. WINE DOWN records COG deviations up to 114.7° — consistent with surveillance evasion maneuvers or at-anchor AIS noise manipulation.

Total Events

9

Max COG Std Dev

114.7°

Threshold

50°

Zigzag Events (Top 50 by COG deviation)

Date	COG Std Dev (°)	Score	Severity	Port	Coordinates

Port History

10 distinct port areas · CA primary flag state

Complete Port Detection Summary

Port	Country	Detections	Avg Score	Avg Dist NM	Risk
Victoria	🇨🇦	22	0.8090	17.9	STANDARD
Vancouver	🇨🇦	17	0.7450	64.6	STANDARD
San Diego	🇺🇸	6	0.7205	406.2	STANDARD
Seattle	🇺🇸	4	0.7406	81.5	STANDARD
Portland OR	🇺🇸	3	0.7313	263.1	STANDARD
Duluth	🇺🇸	2	0.9250	335.0	STANDARD
Long Beach	🇺🇸	2	0.7264	619.3	STANDARD
Anchorage	🇺🇸	2	0.8069	1439.3	STANDARD

🇨🇦 Victoria — Port Profile

22 detections · Avg score 0.8090 · Avg distance 17.9 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

22

Primary port of operation

Avg Alert Score

0.8090

Avg Distance NM

17.9

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Victoria

POSITION_JUMP

10

SPEED_ANOMALY

6

ZIGZAG

6

Coordinates: 48.424°N, 123.370°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇨🇦 CA

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

22 of 60 total detections (36.7%)

Avg Distance from Port

17.9 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

🇨🇦 Vancouver — Port Profile

17 detections · Avg score 0.7450 · Avg distance 64.6 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

17

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.7450

Avg Distance NM

64.6

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Vancouver

SPEED_ANOMALY

9

POSITION_JUMP

6

ZIGZAG

2

Coordinates: 49.283°N, 123.120°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇨🇦 CA

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

17 of 60 total detections (28.3%)

Avg Distance from Port

64.6 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

🇺🇸 San Diego — Port Profile

6 detections · Avg score 0.7205 · Avg distance 406.2 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

6

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.7205

Avg Distance NM

406.2

Possible spoofed coords

Detection Types at San Diego

SPEED_ANOMALY

5

POSITION_JUMP

1

Coordinates: 32.715°N, 117.157°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

6 of 60 total detections (10.0%)

Avg Distance from Port

406.2 NM — anomalously high, suggests spoofed coordinates

🇺🇸 Seattle — Port Profile

4 detections · Avg score 0.7406 · Avg distance 81.5 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

4

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.7406

Avg Distance NM

81.5

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Seattle

POSITION_JUMP

2

SPEED_ANOMALY

2

Coordinates: 47.601°N, 122.334°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

4 of 60 total detections (6.7%)

Avg Distance from Port

81.5 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

🇺🇸 Portland OR — Port Profile

3 detections · Avg score 0.7313 · Avg distance 263.1 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

3

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.7313

Avg Distance NM

263.1

Possible spoofed coords

Detection Types at Portland OR

SPEED_ANOMALY

2

POSITION_JUMP

1

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

3 of 60 total detections (5.0%)

Avg Distance from Port

263.1 NM — anomalously high, suggests spoofed coordinates

🇺🇸 Duluth — Port Profile

2 detections · Avg score 0.9250 · Avg distance 335.0 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

2

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.9250

Avg Distance NM

335.0

Possible spoofed coords

Detection Types at Duluth

POSITION_JUMP

1

ZIGZAG

1

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

2 of 60 total detections (3.3%)

Avg Distance from Port

335.0 NM — anomalously high, suggests spoofed coordinates

🇺🇸 Long Beach — Port Profile

2 detections · Avg score 0.7264 · Avg distance 619.3 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

2

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.7264

Avg Distance NM

619.3

Possible spoofed coords

Detection Types at Long Beach

POSITION_JUMP

1

SPEED_ANOMALY

1

Coordinates: 33.754°N, 118.216°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

2 of 60 total detections (3.3%)

Avg Distance from Port

619.3 NM — anomalously high, suggests spoofed coordinates

🇺🇸 Anchorage — Port Profile

2 detections · Avg score 0.8069 · Avg distance 1439.3 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

2

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.8069

Avg Distance NM

1439.3

Possible spoofed coords

Detection Types at Anchorage

POSITION_JUMP

1

SPEED_ANOMALY

1

Coordinates: 61.218°N, 149.900°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

2 of 60 total detections (3.3%)

Avg Distance from Port

1439.3 NM — anomalously high, suggests spoofed coordinates

Ownership Intelligence

MMSI registry · Flag state analysis · Beneficial ownership investigation

Vessel Name

WINE DOWN

MMSI

338169664

Flag State (MMSI-derived)

🇺🇸 CA

MID Code

338 → 🇺🇸 CA

Primary Port

Victoria

Detection Period

8 months (2024)

Registered Owner

Pending registry lookup

Beneficial Owner

Requires FinCEN CDD query

OFAC SDN Status

Pending cross-reference

Recommended Action

Physical inspection + full registry query

Vessel Type Analysis

AIS declared type · Physical capability vs. observed behavior

Type Mismatch Assessment

AIS Declared Type

vessel_type=37 (Pleasure Craft)

Behavior Consistency

INCONSISTENT — year-round multi-port operations with 166 anomalous events are not consistent with pleasure craft use

Speed Capability

Reported 102.2 kn — physically impossible for Type 37 (max ~45 kn high-performance)

Inspection Priority

HIGH — Recommend USCG/CBSA physical boarding and documentation review

Applicable Statutes

47 C.F.R. § 80.953 (AIS falsification) · 33 C.F.R. § 164.46 (AIS carriage) · 21 U.S.C. § 955 (maritime drug law)