#122 CASPIAN DAWN // Vessel Intelligence System

Intelligence Overview

CASPIAN DAWN · MMSI 366982270 · 🇺🇸 US · Primary Port: Chicago

PERIOD: JAN–DEC 2024

⚠ INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: CASPIAN DAWN ranks #122 of 69,461 monitored vessels with 154 anomalous detections across 11 months. Composite risk score: 0.9500 (CRITICAL). Active alert types: ZIGZAG, SPEED_ANOMALY, POSITION_JUMP.

Global Rank

#122

of 69,461 vessels

Composite Score

0.9500

CRITICAL

Total Detections

154

Months Active

11/12

Unique Ports

5

Position Jumps

32

GPS spoofing

Speed Anomalies

1

Max Speed

82.3 kn

Max Jump

1,447km

Monthly Detection Volume

1
6

10
13

11
20

12
10

3
13

4
9

2024 MONTHLY DETECTIONS

Alert Type Distribution

ZIGZAG

38

POSITION_JUMP

32

SPEED_ANOMALY

1

Key Intelligence Findings

GPS Spoofing — 32 Position Jumps

AIS coordinates fabricated at impossible locations. Maximum jump of 1,447 km confirms the AIS transmitter is broadcasting false positions. Systematic identity concealment is in progress.

Velocity Fraud — 1 Speed Anomaly Events

AIS SOG field manipulated to broadcast physically impossible speeds up to 82.3 knots. Systematic falsification of movement data to corrupt automated tracking algorithms.

Evasion Navigation — 38 Zigzag Events

Erratic course-over-ground patterns up to 169.9° std deviation, far exceeding the 50° anomaly threshold. Pattern consistent with surveillance evasion maneuvers or anchor position AIS noise.

Port Detection Summary

🇺🇸

Philadelphia

34

avg 0.844

🇺🇸

New York

14

avg 0.742

🇺🇸

Chicago

13

avg 0.950

🇺🇸

Jacksonville

6

avg 0.848

🇺🇸

Norfolk

4

avg 0.622

Monthly Alert Log — All Months

Month	Detections	Severity	Score	Nearest Port	Alert Types
January 2024	6	CRITICAL	0.9000	Philadelphia	ZIGZAG
March 2024	13	CRITICAL	0.9500	New York	POSITION_JUMP; ZIGZAG; SPEED_ANOMALY
April 2024	9	CRITICAL	0.9263	Norfolk	ZIGZAG; POSITION_JUMP
May 2024	14	CRITICAL	0.9263	Chicago	POSITION_JUMP; ZIGZAG
June 2024	14	HIGH	0.8282	Chicago	POSITION_JUMP; ZIGZAG; SPEED_ANOMALY
July 2024	23	CRITICAL	0.9263	Norfolk	POSITION_JUMP; ZIGZAG; DARK_VESSEL
August 2024	16	CRITICAL	0.9263	Norfolk	ZIGZAG; POSITION_JUMP
September 2024	16	CRITICAL	0.9263	Chicago	POSITION_JUMP; ZIGZAG
October 2024	13	CRITICAL	0.9263	Philadelphia	POSITION_JUMP; ZIGZAG
November 2024	20	CRITICAL	0.9263	Chicago	POSITION_JUMP; ZIGZAG
December 2024	10	CRITICAL	0.9263	Philadelphia	POSITION_JUMP; ZIGZAG

Activity Map

Detection events plotted · Color-coded by alert type · Drag to pan · Scroll to zoom

● Speed Anomaly ● Position Jump ● Zigzag ● Dark Vessel ● Rendezvous

Threat Intelligence

Analytical confidence: HIGH · Multi-indicator assessment

Threat Indicators Matrix

Indicator	Status	Evidence	Confidence
AIS Blackout / Dark Vessel	NOT DETECTED	—	LOW
GPS Spoofing / Position Jump	CONFIRMED	32 jumps · max 1446.8km	CRITICAL
Velocity Fraud / Speed Anomaly	CONFIRMED	1 events · max 82.3 kn	CRITICAL
Evasion Navigation / Zigzag	CONFIRMED	38 events · max COG std 169.9°	HIGH
Ship-to-Ship Rendezvous	NOT DETECTED	—	LOW
Multi-Port Operations	CONFIRMED	5 unique ports	HIGH

Operational Profile

Primary AO

Chicago and surrounding maritime zone

Active Period

11 months of continuous alert activity in 2024

Alert Density

154 detections across 71 individual events (avg 14.0/month)

Active Techniques

⟳ ZIGZAG ⚡ SPEED ⊕ POS JUMP

Threat Category

High-Confidence AIS Manipulation — Multiple confirmed evasion techniques

TTP Analysis

Tactics, Techniques & Procedures — Maritime ATT&CK Framework

MAR-T003

RTE-ANO-005

Evasion Navigation

Erratic COG changes exceeding 50° threshold (max 169.9°). Consistent with surveillance evasion or at-anchor AIS manipulation. Count: 38 events.

HIGH CONFIDENCE
38 events

MAR-T002

AIS-MAN-003

GPS Spoofing

GPS coordinate spoofing — AIS positions fabricated at impossible locations. Max jump: 1446.8km. Implies deliberate identity concealment. Count: 32 events.

HIGH CONFIDENCE
32 events

MAR-T001

RTE-ANO-001

Velocity Fraud

AIS SOG field manipulation to broadcast impossible speeds up to 82.3 kn. Corrupts automated tracking algorithms and creates false movement vectors. Count: 1 events.

HIGH CONFIDENCE
1 events

Risk Analysis

Composite risk scoring · Weighted indicator model · Quantus v2.4

Composite Score

0.9500

CRITICAL

Avg Detection Score

0.9171

Global Rank

#122

of 69,461 vessels

Weighted Indicator Scoring

Formula: (Dark×3) + (Rendezvous×4) + (PosJump×2) + (Speed×1) + (Zigzag×0.5) + (MaxScore×50)

Indicator	Count	Weight	Contribution
DARK_VESSEL	0	×3	0.0
RENDEZVOUS	0	×4	0.0
POSITION_JUMP	32	×2	64.0
SPEED_ANOMALY	1	×1	1.0
ZIGZAG	38	×0.5	19.0
MaxSingleScore	0.9500	×50	47.5
COMPOSITE TOTAL	Normalized [0,1]		0.9500 CRITICAL

⚡ Speed Anomaly Detections

Indicator: RTE-ANO-001 · 1 events · Max: 82.3 kn

AIS SOG FRAUD

Speed anomaly events are triggered when AIS Speed Over Ground (SOG) exceeds the 30-knot detection threshold. CASPIAN DAWN reports speeds up to 82.3 kn — consistent with deliberate AIS SOG field manipulation to corrupt tracking algorithms.

Total Events

1

Max Reported SOG

82.3 kn

Indicator ID

RTE-ANO-001

Speed Anomaly Events (Top 50 by score)

Date	Max SOG (kn)	Score	Severity	Port	Coordinates

⊕ Position Jump Detections

Indicator: AIS-MAN-003 · 32 events · Max jump: 1,447 km

GPS SPOOFING

Position jumps confirm GPS coordinate spoofing — AIS positions fabricated at impossible locations. CASPIAN DAWN has 32 confirmed position jumps with maximum displacement of 1,447 km.

Total Events

32

Max Jump Distance

1,447 km

Indicator ID

AIS-MAN-003

Position Jump Events (Top 50 by distance)

Date	Jump (km)	Implied Speed (kn)	Score	Severity	Spoofed-To Port	Coordinates

⟳ Zigzag / Erratic Navigation

Indicator: RTE-ANO-005 · 38 events · Max COG std: 169.9°

EVASION PATTERN

Zigzag events are triggered when course-over-ground (COG) standard deviation exceeds 50°. CASPIAN DAWN records COG deviations up to 169.9° — consistent with surveillance evasion maneuvers or at-anchor AIS noise manipulation.

Total Events

38

Max COG Std Dev

169.9°

Threshold

50°

Zigzag Events (Top 50 by COG deviation)

Date	COG Std Dev (°)	Score	Severity	Port	Coordinates

Port History

5 distinct port areas · US primary flag state

Complete Port Detection Summary

Port	Country	Detections	Avg Score	Avg Dist NM	Risk
Philadelphia	🇺🇸	34	0.8441	49.0	STANDARD
New York	🇺🇸	14	0.7422	8.4	STANDARD
Chicago	🇺🇸	13	0.9500	1.0	STANDARD
Jacksonville	🇺🇸	6	0.8482	20.8	STANDARD
Norfolk	🇺🇸	4	0.6221	8.1	STANDARD

🇺🇸 Philadelphia — Port Profile

34 detections · Avg score 0.8441 · Avg distance 49.0 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

34

Primary port of operation

Avg Alert Score

0.8441

Avg Distance NM

49.0

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Philadelphia

ZIGZAG

21

POSITION_JUMP

12

SPEED_ANOMALY

1

Coordinates: 39.952°N, 75.144°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

34 of 71 total detections (47.9%)

Avg Distance from Port

49.0 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

🇺🇸 New York — Port Profile

14 detections · Avg score 0.7422 · Avg distance 8.4 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

14

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.7422

Avg Distance NM

8.4

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at New York

ZIGZAG

9

POSITION_JUMP

5

Coordinates: 40.661°N, 74.044°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

14 of 71 total detections (19.7%)

Avg Distance from Port

8.4 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

🇺🇸 Chicago — Port Profile

13 detections · Avg score 0.9500 · Avg distance 1.0 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

13

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.9500

Avg Distance NM

1.0

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Chicago

POSITION_JUMP

13

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

13 of 71 total detections (18.3%)

Avg Distance from Port

1.0 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

🇺🇸 Jacksonville — Port Profile

6 detections · Avg score 0.8482 · Avg distance 20.8 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

6

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.8482

Avg Distance NM

20.8

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Jacksonville

ZIGZAG

4

POSITION_JUMP

2

Coordinates: 30.332°N, 81.660°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

6 of 71 total detections (8.5%)

Avg Distance from Port

20.8 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

🇺🇸 Norfolk — Port Profile

4 detections · Avg score 0.6221 · Avg distance 8.1 NM

LOW RISK

Total Detections

4

Secondary port

Avg Alert Score

0.6221

Avg Distance NM

8.1

Port proximity zone

Detection Types at Norfolk

ZIGZAG

4

Coordinates: 36.847°N, 76.293°W

Port Intelligence Notes

Port Country

🇺🇸 US

Risk Classification

LOW — Standard port monitoring applies

Detection Share

4 of 71 total detections (5.6%)

Avg Distance from Port

8.1 NM — consistent with port proximity operations

Ownership Intelligence

MMSI registry · Flag state analysis · Beneficial ownership investigation

Vessel Name

CASPIAN DAWN

MMSI

366982270

Flag State (MMSI-derived)

🇺🇸 US

MID Code

366 → 🇺🇸 US

Primary Port

Chicago

Detection Period

11 months (2024)

Registered Owner

Pending registry lookup

Beneficial Owner

Requires FinCEN CDD query

OFAC SDN Status

Pending cross-reference

Recommended Action

Physical inspection + full registry query

Vessel Type Analysis

AIS declared type · Physical capability vs. observed behavior

Type Mismatch Assessment

AIS Declared Type

vessel_type=37 (Pleasure Craft)

Behavior Consistency

INCONSISTENT — year-round multi-port operations with 154 anomalous events are not consistent with pleasure craft use

Speed Capability

Reported 82.3 kn — physically impossible for Type 37 (max ~45 kn high-performance)

Inspection Priority

HIGH — Recommend USCG/CBSA physical boarding and documentation review

Applicable Statutes

47 C.F.R. § 80.953 (AIS falsification) · 33 C.F.R. § 164.46 (AIS carriage) · 21 U.S.C. § 955 (maritime drug law)