Intelligence Overview
TITO EL PATRON · MMSI 538072221 · 🏴 PR · Primary Port: San Juan
PERIOD: JAN–DEC 2024
Global Rank
#166
of 69,461 vessels
Composite Score
0.9500
CRITICAL
Total Detections
128
Months Active
7/12
Unique Ports
4
Dark Events
2
AIS blackout
Position Jumps
2
GPS spoofing
Speed Anomalies
9
Max Speed
102.2 kn
Max Jump
1,584km
Monthly Detection Volume
2024 MONTHLY DETECTIONS
Alert Type Distribution
Key Intelligence Findings
AIS Blackout Confirmed — 2 Events
Deliberate AIS transponder deactivation detected. Each event represents a period where TITO EL PATRON was operating outside electronic surveillance. Consistent with covert cargo transfer or evasion operations.
GPS Spoofing — 2 Position Jumps
AIS coordinates fabricated at impossible locations. Maximum jump of 1,584 km confirms the AIS transmitter is broadcasting false positions. Systematic identity concealment is in progress.
Velocity Fraud — 9 Speed Anomaly Events
AIS SOG field manipulated to broadcast physically impossible speeds up to 102.2 knots. Systematic falsification of movement data to corrupt automated tracking algorithms.
Evasion Navigation — 44 Zigzag Events
Erratic course-over-ground patterns up to 155.7° std deviation, far exceeding the 50° anomaly threshold. Pattern consistent with surveillance evasion maneuvers or anchor position AIS noise.
Port Detection Summary
Monthly Alert Log — All Months
| Month | Detections | Severity | Score | Nearest Port | Alert Types |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | 9 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | San Juan | SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG |
| July 2024 | 13 | CRITICAL | 0.9000 | San Juan | ZIGZAG; SPEED_ANOMALY |
| August 2024 | 20 | HIGH | 0.7541 | San Juan | DARK_VESSEL; SPEED_ANOMALY; ZIGZAG |
| September 2024 | 29 | CRITICAL | 0.9500 | San Juan | ZIGZAG; SPEED_ANOMALY; POSITION_JUMP |
| October 2024 | 22 | CRITICAL | 0.9500 | Port Everglades | ZIGZAG; SPEED_ANOMALY; POSITION_JUMP; DARK_VESSEL |
| November 2024 | 16 | MEDIUM | 0.7484 | Port Everglades | ZIGZAG; DARK_VESSEL |
| December 2024 | 19 | CRITICAL | 0.9500 | Port Everglades | ZIGZAG; SPEED_ANOMALY; POSITION_JUMP |
Activity Map
Detection events plotted · Color-coded by alert type · Drag to pan · Scroll to zoom
● Speed Anomaly
● Position Jump
● Zigzag
● Dark Vessel
● Rendezvous
Threat Intelligence
Analytical confidence: HIGH · Multi-indicator assessment
Threat Indicators Matrix
| Indicator | Status | Evidence | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIS Blackout / Dark Vessel | CONFIRMED | 2 events detected | CRITICAL |
| GPS Spoofing / Position Jump | CONFIRMED | 2 jumps · max 1584.5km | CRITICAL |
| Velocity Fraud / Speed Anomaly | CONFIRMED | 9 events · max 102.2 kn | CRITICAL |
| Evasion Navigation / Zigzag | CONFIRMED | 44 events · max COG std 155.7° | HIGH |
| Ship-to-Ship Rendezvous | NOT DETECTED | — | LOW |
| Multi-Port Operations | CONFIRMED | 4 unique ports | HIGH |
Operational Profile
Primary AO
San Juan and surrounding maritime zone
Active Period
7 months of continuous alert activity in 2024
Alert Density
128 detections across 57 individual events (avg 18.3/month)
Active Techniques
⊕ POS JUMP ⟳ ZIGZAG ◐ DARK ⚡ SPEED
Threat Category
High-Confidence AIS Manipulation — Multiple confirmed evasion techniques
TTP Analysis
Tactics, Techniques & Procedures — Maritime ATT&CK Framework
MAR-T003
RTE-ANO-005
Evasion Navigation
Erratic COG changes exceeding 50° threshold (max 155.7°). Consistent with surveillance evasion or at-anchor AIS manipulation. Count: 44 events.
HIGH CONFIDENCE
44 events
44 events
MAR-T001
RTE-ANO-001
Velocity Fraud
AIS SOG field manipulation to broadcast impossible speeds up to 102.2 kn. Corrupts automated tracking algorithms and creates false movement vectors. Count: 9 events.
HIGH CONFIDENCE
9 events
9 events
MAR-T002
AIS-MAN-003
GPS Spoofing
GPS coordinate spoofing — AIS positions fabricated at impossible locations. Max jump: 1584.5km. Implies deliberate identity concealment. Count: 2 events.
HIGH CONFIDENCE
2 events
2 events
MAR-T004
AIS-MAN-001
AIS Blackout
Deliberate AIS transponder deactivation to create surveillance gaps. Count: 2 events. Each event represents an unmonitored operational window.
HIGH CONFIDENCE
2 events
2 events
Risk Analysis
Composite risk scoring · Weighted indicator model · Quantus v2.4
Composite Score
0.9500
CRITICAL
Avg Detection Score
0.8789
Global Rank
#166
of 69,461 vessels
Weighted Indicator Scoring
| Indicator | Count | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| DARK_VESSEL | 2 | ×3 | 6.0 |
| RENDEZVOUS | 0 | ×4 | 0.0 |
| POSITION_JUMP | 2 | ×2 | 4.0 |
| SPEED_ANOMALY | 9 | ×1 | 9.0 |
| ZIGZAG | 44 | ×0.5 | 22.0 |
| MaxSingleScore | 0.9500 | ×50 | 47.5 |
| COMPOSITE TOTAL | Normalized [0,1] | 0.9500 CRITICAL | |
⚡ Speed Anomaly Detections
Indicator: RTE-ANO-001 · 9 events · Max: 102.2 kn
Total Events
9
Max Reported SOG
102.2 kn
Indicator ID
RTE-ANO-001
Speed Anomaly Events (Top 50 by score)
| Date | Max SOG (kn) | Score | Severity | Port | Coordinates |
|---|
⊕ Position Jump Detections
Indicator: AIS-MAN-003 · 2 events · Max jump: 1,584 km
Total Events
2
Max Jump Distance
1,584 km
Indicator ID
AIS-MAN-003
Position Jump Events (Top 50 by distance)
| Date | Jump (km) | Implied Speed (kn) | Score | Severity | Spoofed-To Port | Coordinates |
|---|
⟳ Zigzag / Erratic Navigation
Indicator: RTE-ANO-005 · 44 events · Max COG std: 155.7°
Total Events
44
Max COG Std Dev
155.7°
Threshold
50°
Zigzag Events (Top 50 by COG deviation)
| Date | COG Std Dev (°) | Score | Severity | Port | Coordinates |
|---|
◐ Dark Vessel Events
Indicator: AIS-MAN-001 · 2 AIS blackout events detected
Dark Vessel Events
2
Indicator
AIS-MAN-001
Risk Level
CRITICAL
◐ DARK EVENT #1 — 2024-10-31T04:18:21
AIS BLACKOUT
Location
26.0599°N, 80.1292°W — Port Everglades
AIS Gap Duration
8.2 hours
Pre-Blackout Speed
1.9 knots SOG
Displacement
2.0 NM from port during gap
Score
0.5446 · LOW
Assessment
Near-stationary approach before blackout — possible rendezvous/transfer signature.
◐ DARK EVENT #2 — 2024-11-17T01:01:23
AIS BLACKOUT
Location
26.0594°N, 80.1287°W — Port Everglades
AIS Gap Duration
11.6 hours
Pre-Blackout Speed
4.0 knots SOG
Displacement
2.0 NM from port during gap
Score
0.6119 · LOW
Assessment
AIS gap consistent with deliberate concealment.
Port History
4 distinct port areas · PR primary flag state
Complete Port Detection Summary
| Port | Country | Detections | Avg Score | Avg Dist NM | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Everglades | 🇺🇸 | 39 | 0.8053 | 2.1 | STANDARD |
| San Juan | 🇵🇷 | 14 | 0.7738 | 56.4 | STANDARD |
| Freeport | 🇧🇸 | 3 | 0.8296 | 149.2 | STANDARD |
| Willemstad | 🌐 | 1 | 0.7235 | 272.6 | STANDARD |
🇺🇸 Port Everglades — Port Profile
39 detections · Avg score 0.8053 · Avg distance 2.1 NM
Total Detections
39
Primary port of operation
Avg Alert Score
0.8053
Avg Distance NM
2.1
Port proximity zone
Detection Types at Port Everglades
Coordinates: 26.083°N, 80.117°W
Port Intelligence Notes
Port Country
🇺🇸 US
Risk Classification
LOW — Standard port monitoring applies
Detection Share
39 of 57 total detections (68.4%)
Avg Distance from Port
2.1 NM — consistent with port proximity operations
🇵🇷 San Juan — Port Profile
14 detections · Avg score 0.7738 · Avg distance 56.4 NM
Total Detections
14
Secondary port
Avg Alert Score
0.7738
Avg Distance NM
56.4
Port proximity zone
Detection Types at San Juan
Coordinates: 18.465°N, 66.115°W
Port Intelligence Notes
Port Country
🇵🇷 PR
Risk Classification
LOW — Standard port monitoring applies
Detection Share
14 of 57 total detections (24.6%)
Avg Distance from Port
56.4 NM — consistent with port proximity operations
🇧🇸 Freeport — Port Profile
3 detections · Avg score 0.8296 · Avg distance 149.2 NM
Total Detections
3
Secondary port
Avg Alert Score
0.8296
Avg Distance NM
149.2
Port proximity zone
Detection Types at Freeport
Coordinates: 26.526°N, 78.700°W
Port Intelligence Notes
Port Country
🇧🇸 BS
Risk Classification
LOW — Standard port monitoring applies
Detection Share
3 of 57 total detections (5.3%)
Avg Distance from Port
149.2 NM — consistent with port proximity operations
🌐 Willemstad — Port Profile
1 detections · Avg score 0.7235 · Avg distance 272.6 NM
Total Detections
1
Secondary port
Avg Alert Score
0.7235
Avg Distance NM
272.6
Possible spoofed coords
Detection Types at Willemstad
Port Intelligence Notes
Port Country
🌐 CW
Risk Classification
LOW — Standard port monitoring applies
Detection Share
1 of 57 total detections (1.8%)
Avg Distance from Port
272.6 NM — anomalously high, suggests spoofed coordinates
Ownership Intelligence
MMSI registry · Flag state analysis · Beneficial ownership investigation
Vessel Name
TITO EL PATRON
MMSI
538072221
Flag State (MMSI-derived)
🏴 PR
MID Code
538 → 🏴 PR
Primary Port
San Juan
Detection Period
7 months (2024)
Registered Owner
Pending registry lookup
Beneficial Owner
Requires FinCEN CDD query
OFAC SDN Status
Pending cross-reference
Recommended Action
Physical inspection + full registry query
Vessel Type Analysis
AIS declared type · Physical capability vs. observed behavior
Type Mismatch Assessment
AIS Declared Type
vessel_type=37 (Pleasure Craft)
Behavior Consistency
INCONSISTENT — year-round multi-port operations with 128 anomalous events are not consistent with pleasure craft use
Speed Capability
Reported 102.2 kn — physically impossible for Type 37 (max ~45 kn high-performance)
Inspection Priority
HIGH — Recommend USCG/CBSA physical boarding and documentation review
Applicable Statutes
47 C.F.R. § 80.953 (AIS falsification) · 33 C.F.R. § 164.46 (AIS carriage) · 21 U.S.C. § 955 (maritime drug law)